The Lingering Mystery: Unraveling the Unprecedented Sluggishness of the MLB Offseason

As the countdown to spring training begins, the MLB offseason is unfolding at an unusually slow pace, leaving over 100 players in limbo without teams. This sluggish progress is affecting not only specific types of free agents but players across the board. While some attribute the delay to the free agency of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the truth is that both teams and players are exercising caution, waiting to make their moves until someone takes the lead.

Although not every offseason moves as swiftly as the previous one, where the majority of players with $20 million or more guarantees were signed before New Year’s Day, the current situation is exceptional. In late January of 2021, J.T. Realmuto and DJ LeMahieu secured deals, and Trevor Bauer inked his contract in February. Even in 2020, Josh Donaldson signed in mid-January, a year after Bryce Harper and Manny Machado held out until February.

However, even the most astute observers of free agency agree that it is rare to witness such a surplus of highly productive players available well into the new year. As we enter January, the reigning National League Cy Young winner, a prominent World Series performer, and a former MVP center fielder remain without contracts. Adding to the intrigue, this offseason has witnessed the Los Angeles Dodgers dominating the free agent market, while other teams have remained relatively quiet. Astonishingly, four teams—the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, and Colorado Rockies—have not spent a single dollar in free agency.

Various justifications are offered for the sluggish pace of free agency, with teams pointing to factors like uncertain local television contracts. Nevertheless, it is evident that most teams are keen to enhance their rosters, and the simplest route to achieving that is by signing top-tier players. Thus, while the market is destined to shift, it may lack the customary sense of urgency typically felt at this time of year. In the next 10 days, teams and agents are likely to engage in posturing ahead of the arbitration-exchange date on January 12. Although some signings may occur before that deadline, the bulk of free agent activity is expected to unfold between January 12 and the first arbitration hearing on January 29.

Whether it unfolds this week, late in January, or even as spring training approaches, there is no doubt that the upcoming deals will generate ample intrigue and fuel spirited debates. After conversations with numerous agents, executives, and league sources, it is clear that the hot stove season still holds many surprises in store.