As of right now, Shohei Ohtani is no longer an Angel. Mike Trout will be soon after, if the internet has its way.

Almost immediately after Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers was announced on Saturday, irate calls for a Trout trade erupted on social media. In support of these requests, it’s also simple to picture the three-time American League MVP being dealt at this particular time.

Despite having Trout—one of the all-time greats—for nine of those years and Ohtani—possibly the all-time great—for six of those years, the Angels have been stuck in a nine-year playoff drought. There should be an agreement between the 32-year-old Trout and the Angels that he and the remaining years of his 12-year, $426.5 million contract are better suited elsewhere, especially when things naturally appear that much more desperate without Ohtani.

But is it realistic to think that the Angels will deal Trout to anyone? If yes, when?

Is This Winter the Time?

Theoretically, Trout should be traded by the Angels as soon as feasible.

Ohtani may have won MVP awards both at bat and on the mound, but the Angels did lose 89 games this season. They now project to be among the weakest clubs in 2024, and the farm system that supports them is ranked as the fourth worst in Major League Baseball by Joel Reuter of the Boston Red Sox. It’s obvious that this team needs to be rebuilt.

Furthermore, there are very few impact bats available on the trade and free-agent markets.

Even before Juan Soto and Ohtani left the team, it was awful. The Angels might have more negotiating power if they were to trade for Trout because it’s now worse. And they really need it because his trade value isn’t exactly enhanced by the $259.8 million in debt he has until 2030.

Identification of possible fittings for Trout doesn’t require a sharp eye. The quasi-hometown Philadelphia Phillies of the Millville, New Jersey native would benefit from having a center fielder, as would other high-paying teams such as the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, and San Diego Padres. In November, the Dodgers were even mentioned as potential suitors.

But is there no use for such conjecture? Perry Minasian, general manager of the Angels, would likely answer “yes,” assuming that his position hasn’t altered since December 5:

Furthermore, it has to be seen if Trout would consent to forgoing his no-trade provision. Even as late as September, he didn’t seem interested, despite rumors to the contrary.

Trout told reporters, “This is something I go through every year.” “I have these private discussions with [president] John [Carpino] and [owner] Arte [Moreno.” For the past thirteen years, I have been doing the same thing. Entering the off-season, decluttering, preparing for spring, and donning an Angels outfit in the spring.”

Thus, unless Trout and Minasian decide to change their ways, the latter is most likely staying put this winter.

Is It Going to Be Next Summer?

To be honest, waiting wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Angels.

Despite all of his achievements, Trout isn’t a particularly useful player at this time. Over the past three years, a long list of injuries—including a hamate fracture and a unique back condition—have prevented him from playing in more than half of the Angels’ games. Furthermore, even though he was 31% better at hitting than the average in 2023, his 2023 lows came in the form of a.263 average, a.367 on-base percentage, and a.490 slugging percentage.

Thus, the maybe/definitely scenario for 2024 is as follows: maybe Trout will continue to remain healthy and bat like the player who was once the best hitter in MLB, while the Angels will undoubtedly find themselves in a selling position come trade deadline.

However, are you aware of how uncommon it is for elite athletes to be traded while they are under contract, often for nine figures? It’s not very common, and considerably less common for position players.

The Colorado Rockies’ 2015 trade of Troy Tulowitzki, who still had five years and $94 million left on his contract, to the Toronto Blue Jays was really the only deal that even resembled a summertime Trout trade. Furthermore, even that was equivalent to a poor contract exchange because José Reyes chose the opposite path.

To be sure, this does not rule out the possibility of a Trout trade occurring next summer. However, it’s recommended to avoid betting on it due to the rarity of entrants into this specific trading category.

Would That Be Winter of Next Year?

On the other hand, superstar hitters with large contracts are frequently traded over the offseason. Consider Giancarlo Stanton. or Arenado Nolan. or Robinson Cano. or Matt Kemp. or Fielder, Prince. Or, you know, anything.

If Trout could show a return to form in 2024 through the remainder of the season, such history would undoubtedly portend even better for a trade. Retrospection bias would prove one thing even if everything else failed: Mike Trout is once again Mike Trout, even if he was looking forward to his age-33 season in 2025.

Yes, but next winter’s advantage won’t belong to the Angels.

While there aren’t many impact hits in the market this winter, there will be plenty of them next year. Soto is expected to fetch the highest price, with Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt, Willy Adames, and Gleyber Torres also expected to go up for bid.

Whatever Trout does in 2024, it seems unlikely that many teams will be willing to take on the older player and the $222.7 million he will still owing while there is such a wealth of offensive potential available.

Might It Be After Winter of Next Year?

We can’t see anything clearly right now because we’re looking too far into the future. If you’re looking for a firm response, though, I’d say there’s a good possibility a Trout trade will happen eventually.

If nothing else, when the years on his deal run out and inflation takes a bite out of his $37.1 million income each year, he will become more accessible. He might even reach a point where, in comparison to his star power right now, he’s a low-risk addition, similar to Carlos Beltrán in 2011 or Manny Ramirez in 2008.

Furthermore, it’s possible that if the Angels continue to lose, Trout’s current postseason resume—that is, all three games—will only get more desperate.

“We’re at a point where we have to win,” he stated in March to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That is the location of the organization. The fans are in Anaheim to watch some winning baseball.”

But can we truly assume that Trout’s star power will hold up over time? Yes, it’s not aging well already. Red signs include his declining ability to hit the fastball and rising whiff rates, even putting aside the injuries and this year’s performance decline.

Trout might not develop into a Beltrán or a Ramirez as a result. He could end up more like Giancarlo Stanton or Albert Pujols—once-great sluggers with no trade value.

Is It Possible That It Will Never Be?

Additionally, Trout could end up being the next Joey Votto.

For many years, it was easy to foresee the Cincinnati Reds dumping Votto and his $225 million deal due to their constant mistakes and his continued success. However, it never materialized, and it appears that Votto’s own lack of desire for it to does much to explain this. He was happy in Cincinnati and determined to be a successful Red all the way to the finish.

Though Trout seems to be made of the same material, only Trout knows what goes through his mind.

“We’ve had some ups and downs, but I’m really looking forward to the future,” he said to reporters after signing his current deal in 2019. “This is my home,” he continued. Here is where I truly see us taking home the title. It wouldn’t have seemed right, in my opinion, to move to a winning team immediately away if I had waited two years. Teams have highs and lows. I wish to participate in every activity. Of course I want to prevail.”

In addition, Moreno is another important figure in all of this. As his ultimate departure became increasingly imminent, he personally nixed an Ohtani deal in 2022. He’s a hands-on owner who isn’t beyond making decisions for the front office.

One official told Jayson Stark of The Athletic quite plainly when asked why Moreno was so intent on holding onto Ohtani: “I’ll tell you why.” since it is where the revenue originates.”

Since Ohtani is no longer present, Trout is the sole attraction for those interested in spending a day or night at Anaheim’s Angel Stadium. And even if his star power does continue to fade, this figures to be the case because he’s a future inner-circle Hall of Famer no matter what.

In my opinion, here is where the wise money is on a Trout trade. For a trade to occur in the future, a number of conditions must be met, but for him to remain in Anaheim, everything only needs to remain the same.