Olney: “He knows where he wants to go” regarding Ohtani

All eyes will be on two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani as the league awaits his decision in free agency, with the MLB Winter Meetings scheduled to begin on December 4.

Ohtani already knows where he wants to play, according to ESPN Baseball Insider Buster Olney, who also claims that “his agent is actually just playing it out to get leverage.”

Olney was on TSN1050’s First Up on Wednesday to talk about Ohtani’s upcoming move, potential destinations for Matt Chapman, and other topics.

“Let me say this: Those who know Ohtani well believe he has already made up his mind. They believe he has known for a considerable amount of time where he wants to go,” Olney added.

Olney thinks the Los Angeles Dodgers are leading the race to sign Ohtani, even if his team is keeping everything under wraps.

“I still think the Dodgers are going to wind up being the fit for him,” he stated. “They’re in a position because of how they handled their payroll where they can offer him a lot of money and he’d be teamed with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, so he’d have a lot of cover.”

For most of the season, the Dodgers have led the Ohtani race for a number of reasons, including their competitiveness and geographic location.

According to recent reports from ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Texas Rangers, Blue Jays, and Dodgers are leading the race for Ohtani. The Toronto Blue Jays are also highly involved in the chase.

Olney has less faith in the Jays’ ability to sign the two-time MVP.

“It’s hard to get free agents to come to Toronto unless you pay them far and away more than anybody else,” Olney stated. “I believe what his friends are telling me, that he’s already chosen his spot, and he knows where he wants to go.”

“In terms of the Blue Jays, the one point of logic that’s been pointed out to me by rival executives that would fit them is they need offensive help,” he stated. “Unless they spend a lot of money, they have a very difficult time filling those offensive places since they currently don’t have a lot of potential. Naturally, Ohtani will be the person at the top of that board.”

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who ranks second on TSN’s ranking of the Top 50 MLB Free Agents and pitched to a 1.16 earned-run average in Japan last season, might potentially sign a record contract in the MLB within the next month, according to other free agency developments.

The Orix Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20, giving MLB clubs forty-five days to negotiate a contract. In Nippon Professional Baseball, Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award, the equivalent of the Cy Young Award in Japan, for the last three years.

“He’s going to be one of the highest-paid pitchers in baseball history,” stated Olney. “You do not see elite starting pitchers hit the free agent market at age 25.”

“The other thing is Yamamoto has all these big-market teams lined up with desperate needs: the Dodgers [may not] re-sign Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias is going to be facing a suspension under baseball’s Domestic Abuse Policy, and Walker Buehler is coming off an injury,” stated Olney.

“The Mets, having saved the money by trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander – this is the first big move for new GM David Stearns, so we know they’re going to be heavily involved,” he stated.

Olney says he’s seen estimates of Yamamoto’s contract’s overall value of about $225 million, but he anticipates a higher final sum.

“I think he’s going to get the second-biggest contract for a starting pitcher in MLB history behind Gerrit Cole because of his age and because of the desperate need we’re seeing of these big-market teams.”

Third baseman Matt Chapman is unlikely to get a huge contract this off-season, according to Olney, having turned down a qualifying offer from the Toronto Blue Jays at the beginning of the off-season.

“There’s so much concern about his ability to hit fastballs and his struggles over the last four and a half months of the season,” he stated. “I’m going to be really interested to see if there’s a team out there that’s going to actually step up and pay.”

With five home runs and a.384 batting average in April, Chapman won AL Player of the Month. He had a blistering start to the season. He hit just.205 after May and struck out in less than 30% of his plate appearances.

“To some degree you have the defence, which is elite, but then there’s the question about him as an offensive player,” added Olney. “Is some team going to be willing to step out and offer something like five years, $20 million a year, give him a nine-figure contract?”

Olney asserts that Chapman’s departure from Toronto is also unlikely, saying, “There is a perception that he’s going to leave – wherever his next team is, it’s not going to be Toronto.”