Home Baseball Estimating MLB Free Agency Contracts for the Top 10 Players, With Shohei Ohtani Potentially Earning $500 Million

Estimating MLB Free Agency Contracts for the Top 10 Players, With Shohei Ohtani Potentially Earning $500 Million

Baseball — 11/16/2023

With MLB’s free-agency period underway, theories and predictions regarding the contracts that elite players will receive abound. The hot stove is cranked up. Here is a sneak peek at possible deals for the top 10 free agents, based on past performance and industry chatter:

1. Shohei Ohtani: $500 million over ten yearsBecause of Ohtani’s extraordinary accomplishments, a record-breaking agreement is required; yet, elbow surgery may affect the contract’s structure and result in opt-out clauses.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: $220 million over eight yearsYamamoto is regarded as a rising star whose youth, talent, and stellar record could eclipse Masahiro Tanaka’s record for entering Japanese pitchers.

3. Cody Bellinger: $180 million over six yearsGiven the new CBA and league reforms, Bellinger’s exceptional season might fetch a larger contract than George Springer’s $150 million deal.

4. Matt Chapman: $150 million over five yearsThough Chapman’s batting durability is a question mark, his power and outstanding defence make him a valuable asset who might sign a five-year contract.

5. Aaron Nola: $150 million over five yearsEven with sporadic performance dips, Nola’s steady rotation presence could lead to a better contract that exceeds expectations.

6. Blake Snell: $135 million over five yearsSnell is a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award, but his command and workload concerns may affect his contract situation and make it shorter.

7. Eduardo Rodriguez: $100 million over five yearsRodriguez might receive a larger contract than expected as a result of his decision to opt out and establish himself as a capable lefty starter again.

8. Marcus Stroman: $70 million over three yearsGiven his performance and opting out, Stroman’s market worth could be similar to a more enticing version of Chris Bassitt’s Toronto Blue Jays contract.

9. Lucas Giolito: $38 million over two yearsGiolito’s market estimate is difficult given his recent performance swings; after accounting for inflation, a two-year contract similar to Nathan Eovaldi’s would be appropriate.

10. Jordan Montgomery: $110 million over five yearsThough less spectacular, Montgomery’s steady play as a starter might land him a five-year contract as teams come to appreciate his ability to produce strong starts.