The general managers’ meetings in Scottsdale, Arizona, have begun, and with them comes the availability of a free agent unlike any other.
The impending announcement of which teams will give baseball’s most valuable player $500 million stands head and shoulders above all other topics this offseason. The free agency market may move slowly at first, as front offices put other pursuits on hold and save their pennies for a guy who will, when healthy, fill two jobs with one roster slot.
Starting in 2024, whichever team Ohtani signs with at designated hitter will have one of baseball’s finest left-handed batters, and in 2025 and beyond, that team will have an ace-caliber starting pitcher (coming off his second elbow surgery). There are 30 teams reportedly interested in signing Ohtani, but we can cross off more than half as long shots.
The 12 teams anticipated to compete for Ohtani in free agency are listed below in alphabetical order. Jim Bowden of The Athletic identified the Angels and the Yankees as potential destinations, and several MLB players have speculated that these two teams will be among Ohtani’s top choices this summer. We are looking into how adding Ohtani to a team’s roster would affect their current and future personnel. How would his bat affect the 2024 lineup as it is right now? Are there any roster changes on the horizon? How does Ohtani affect the foundation of each team going forward?
Red Sox of BostonOhtani would help the Red Sox in the long run, but not right now, by addressing their most current need, which is pitching. He would also add another left-handed hitter to a lineup that has far too many of them. And while the DH position is vacant with Justin Turner’s departure, filling it with Ohtani would require Masataka Yoshida to play more left field (where he isn’t particularly good) and reduce the lineup’s flexibility, which was a desire heading into the summer. However, Ohtani is the sport’s biggest star, and the Red Sox’s top concern may be convincing their audience that they are serious about winning again. Get Ohtani first, then figure out how to make the money work with prospects like Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel at the position player positions.
Earlier than any Other Team, the Chicago Cubs Craig Counsell, now Ohtani?! Although adding Ohtani to the Cubs’ lineup would not make them instant World Series favorites, it would make them a much more dangerous opponent. Ohtani, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Christopher Morel would be a formidable threat to the rest of the National League Central, despite the team’s loss of Cody Bellinger to free agency. Last year, the Cubs ranked at the bottom of the league in OPS by designated hitter. Ohtani occupying DH wouldn’t push out any fundamental piece moving forward, however, but it would necessitate finding a defensive home for Morel — he played all over last season but most often DH — or shopping him as a trade candidate this winter. Ohtani, Justin Steele, and any two of Jameson Taillon, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Cade Horton may constitute the Cubs’ starting rotation by 2025.
Angels of Los Angeles
The Angels tried to win with Ohtani one last time by stealing from their farm system. Quickly. Categorically. Dreadfully. For the sake of this thought experiment, however, let’s assume that he has returned to the friendly confines of Anaheim and is gearing up to finish out the 2020s with the Angels. This is not hard to imagine. Without Ohtani, the 2024 team would be very similar to the 2023 squad. The lineup will be top-heavy without substantial summer additions, making Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon vulnerable to slumps from even minor injuries. The future of the Angels’ core players depends on three factors: the health of Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon; increased and sustained spending by owner Arte Moreno; and surprise contributions from the position player depth chart of a farm system that has been primarily focused on drafting pitchers in recent years. When Ohtani returns to the beginning rotation in 2025, he will join Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson, and Patrick Sandoval, who will make up the bulk of the starting pitching hierarchy. Everything is still the same, which is both comforting and frustrating.
The Dodgers of Los AngelesIt appears that the Dodgers are the frontrunners to sign Ohtani. The neighborhood is familiar to him. They’ve surrounded him with a slew of A-listers. Since J.D. Martnez is a free agent, they have an opening at designated hitter. They are able to spend money and are eager to do so. With MVP winners Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Ohtani at the top of the lineup till at least 2027? (Tiny Whistle) Changes in weather are inevitable. There will be a shuffle of new faces in the Los Angeles cast. But even so, those three will continue to provide unfathomable trouble for opposition pitchers. The Dodgers, who were short on starting pitchers in 2023, could potentially use Ohtani’s right arm to help them out. For 2025, Ohtani might replace Walker Buehler, who’ll be bound for free agency by then, in the rotation. Dustin May, Bobby Miller, and Tony Gonsolin, along with the Sheehans, Stones, and Groves, will still be with the Dodgers at that point. Perhaps 37-year-old Clayton Kershaw and his surgically healed shoulder will be re-added to the lineup. Let’s keep daydreaming about Ohtani wearing Dodger blue for a bit.
Mets of New YorkNo offense to Daniel Vogelbach and Mark Vientos, but it looks like the DH spot in Queens may use an upgrade. They ranked 11th out of the 12 teams on this list with a.700 OPS from the designated hitter position this season. Their lineup could use some lefty power. As an added bonus, Ohtani might help the Mets, who lost a lot of their star power at the trade deadline, by filling in where they left off. But haven’t we been asking that question with every move the Mets have made throughout the Steve Cohen era? It’s possible that money isn’t an issue at all, and Ohtani is the most popular baseball player in the world. Try out Ohtani in the lineup alongside Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo under new manager Carlos Mendoza, and see if they can win till next season. Ohtani and Kodai Senga, the starting pitching duo, are signed through at least 2027, which is a long time. Don’t overthink things appears to be the appropriate response here. The Mets have a huge payroll, but baseball’s top free agent is still available. The next step is to sign him.
Yankees of New YorkDedicating resources to Ohtani at DH would mean committing to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield corners, or eating a significant portion of Stanton’s deal in order to pivot within the next four years. Considering the Yankees have a young, cheap Gold Glove shortstop in Anthony Volpe, several promising center fielders (beginning with Jasson Domnguez once he recovers from elbow surgery), and a few other promising young position players on the cusp, this might not be such a bad thing. Ohtani’s massive left-handed bat would be a welcome addition to a right-leaning lineup, and beginning in 2025, he and staff ace Gerrit Cole would make a formidable top two in the rotation. Designated hitter doesn’t seem to be a Yankees priority at the moment — they have used the position as a revolving door in recent years, cycling in veterans for a day of partial rest, and adding Ohtani would mostly put an end to that practice — but signing Ohtani does feel like a very Yankees thing to do. In retrospect, at least.
The Phillies of PhiladelphiaThe prospect of Ohtani landing in Philadelphia poses some challenges — like the fact Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper all will need to play the field each game — but it sure would be interesting. Let’s make together a starting lineup for Opening Day in 2024:
1. SS Trea Turner2nd baseman Bryce HarperThree, Shohei Ohtani, Designated HitterFourthly, RF Nick CastellanosThe fifth member of the lineup, LF Kyle Schwarber6th-Alec Bohm, 3rd-Ball7th-inning two-out-blow by Bryson StottEighth Place: J.T. Realmuto, CCF Brandon Marsh, No. 9
R-I-C-H, babe! Include Ohtani, Turner, Harper, Realmuto, Castellanos, and Schwarber, and you have six hitters making $20 million or more year and signed through at least 2025. In reference to the year 2025, the Phillies will require Ohtani’s services as a starting pitcher. Right now, Aaron Nola can sign with any team that wants him. After the 2024 season, both Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez will be able to sign with any team for free. If those three depart, Ohtani would be the Phillies’ clear No. 1 as they seek to build together a full rotation.
Padres de San DiegoIf, in the first half of 2023, Fernando Tatis Jr. helped put the Padres on your radar, you were not alone. Manny Machado! Soto, Juan! What up, Xander Bogaerts! Oh my! — You might want to take a seat before you consider include Ohtani in that group. This assumes San Diego keeps Soto through 2024 at the very least, which is far from guaranteed. Have the Padres’ owners got the money and the guts to sign Ohtani and Soto to long-term deals? What if, instead, the Padres trade away Soto and acquire Ohtani this offseason? They may have upgraded their farm system and added some punch, but their lineup for 2024 wouldn’t have changed much. It’s anyone’s guess. Potentially, that could be the solution. They had a better-looking roster than their 2023 record indicated.
With Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, and Rich Hill all being free agents and Ohtani unavailable to start next season, the Padres have some serious needs to fill in their starting rotation. So, while the long-term outlook might look all great with Ohtani, Yu Darvish (committed through 2028), Joe Musgrove (signed through 2027) and several significant starting prospects reaching the upper levels of the minors, the near future needs addressed.
The Giants and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi need a big free agent signing after coming close to signing Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason. The 2023 season was the first time the team’s average attendance had dropped more than five spots since Oracle Park (then known as Pacific Bell Park) debuted in 2000. The Giants sought a manager who could entice free agents, so Zaidi mentioned the necessity of luring Bob Melvin away from San Diego. Since the Giants have just Logan Webb under contract beyond 2025, they have significant salary cap flexibility. The Giants will be counting on Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto to have injury-free campaigns next year. It’s worth recalling that the team hasn’t had a 30-homer hitter since Barry Bonds in 2004; adding Ohtani to the lineup could be the answer to their problems with an unremarkable offense that ranked 24th in runs last season. Ohtani’s potential as a rotation cornerstone would be a boon to the Giants, who also have Webb and lauded left-handed prospect Kyle Harrison in their midst. Despite the team’s struggles in 2023, the Giants have a number of strengths. The next logical step is to bring in a real A-lister.
Mariners of SeattleThe signing of Ohtani would calm the nerves of a team and fan base that were upset by Jerry Dipoto’s “54 percent” comments after a season in which the Mariners fell just short of the postseason. With Teoscar Hernández poised to reach free agency, Seattle could use another legitimate bat. Last year, the Mariners used a variety of different players at DH, resulting in a negative 0.8 bWAR for the position as a whole. In 2023, they had the worst OPS from their designated hitters (.688) of any team on this list. The addition of Ohtani might also free up trade chips for the Mariners’ young pitching core of Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, and others in order to acquire additional position players. Ohtani, Robbie Ray, and Luis Castillo might all start for the same team in 2025. Ohtani’s addition would cement Julio Rodriguez as the team’s marquee player for the foreseeable future in Seattle.
Rangers of TexasThe reigning World Series champions have the potential to improve even further in 2018. Their primary DH in the stretch run, Mitch Garver, might leave for another team in free agency. Ohtani, batting cleanup behind Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garca, would be a tremendous addition to a lineup that is currently tied for the AL lead in home runs. The Rangers could decide to add a starting pitcher this offseason, or they could decide to do nothing. After 2024, when Max Scherzer’s contract is up, Ohtani can take his spot. Every team on this list would benefit from the addition of Ohtani, but it seems almost cruel to the Rangers to put him in the middle of their batting order, regardless of what he might give them as a pitcher. The Rangers have signed Seager through 2031, Semien through 2028, and Jacob deGrom through 2027 with a club option for 2028, despite the fact that money does not appear to be an issue for owner Ray Davis. Adding Ohtani to the Rangers would lock them into years of high luxury tax payments and likely prevent them from keeping some of their complementary talent. This begs the intriguing query: Is it worth throwing another veteran with arm problems into that pot of money for the sake of building a dynasty?
MLB team from TorontoThe Blue Jays have not yet moved to lock up their position-player core, so signing Ohtani would seem to be Step 1 moving toward a Step 2 of extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Ohtani’s addition to Toronto’s lineup would immediately strengthen its top four, which currently consists of George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero. This would allow catchers Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen (a free agent after 2024) to get genuine days off instead of DH days when they aren’t in the lineup. It would also prevent Guerrero from staying put at DH in the second portion of his career. However, if Guerrero does not remain in Toronto, that argument becomes moot.
On Opening Day in 2025, Ohtani, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berroa, and Ricky Tiedemann might be Toronto’s starting five. In a word, formidable! The contracts of Bassitt, Gausman, and Berroes all expire in the years after 2025, 2026, and 2028, respectively. That still leaves a decent window in which the Blue Jays would enjoy one of the best rotations in the game.