With teams and players having until November 6 to accept or reject contract options for the 2024 season—which could result in more players entering free agency—the MLB offseason has officially begun.
While the Los Angeles Dodgers hammered out a deal with Max Muncy to keep him in Dodger Blue for at least the next two seasons, Lance Lynn’s team option was reportedly denied.
Other players in the league also became free agents: Liam Hendricks, whose option was rejected by the Chicago White Sox; Whit Merrifield, whose mutual option was turned down by the Toronto Blue Jays; and Jorge Soler, whose player option was turned down by the Miami Marlins.
In addition, two prominent former Dodgers found themselves back on the market: Cody Bellinger turned down a $25 million mutual option with the Boston Red Sox, earning a $5 million buyout, while Justin Turner turned down a $13.4 million player option with the team.
A reunion with Bellinger is improbable, but it is feasible as the Dodgers do need outfielders and will probably sign two this offseason. With Turner being more likely to return than Betts, Muncy is projected to return, and Mookie Betts will play more second base going forward, making the Dodgers’ infield more congested.
Turner and Muncy could alternate days at third base, with one of them filling in as the designated hitter. Turner is less likely to return home for a reunion if the Dodgers sign Shohei Ohtani, but they may end up with more playing time for Muncy at second base.
Additionally, Turner might be willing to play a bench role, much like Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, and David Freese did during what might be his last season with the Dodgers.
Outlook for Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner’s free agency
Bellinger Cody
After a breakout season in which he hit.307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 97 RBI, 95 runs scored, 20 stolen bases, and a 134 wRC+ while playing excellent defense, the 28-year-old is expected to get a multi-year contract. Moreover, Bellinger’s strikeout percentage dropped to 15.6%, or around 7% less than his career average.
Bellinger’s offensive profile still raises some questions, despite the offensive improvement from the prior two seasons. With an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, a barrel rate in the 27th percentile at 6.1%, and a hard-hit percentage in just the 10th percentile at 31.4%, he was in the 22nd percentile among MLB hitters.
As a result, Bellinger achieved an estimated slugging percentage of.470 and a batting average of just.270. That might eventually put a cap on the total amount of Bellinger’s contract, but teams looking for a center fielder and star power should still be considering him.
After having his least productive season since 2013 with the New York Mets, Justin Turner was nevertheless a reliable bat all around.276/.345/.455 with a 114 wRC+, 23 home runs, 96 RBI, and 86 runs scored.
That should mean that Turner signs with a team to play a starting position, but he will be 39 years old and his offensive profile is deteriorating; his xBA, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit rate are all close to or below league average.
Turner had time in 2023 at first base, third base, and even briefly at second base, but his best position going forward seems to be as a designated hitter (DH).
Turner might get an estimated $10 million for a one-year deal, which would increase his profits after his buyout more than he would have if he had chosen to participate.