Some sneered at the $500 million price tag for Shohei Ohtani. But I’m hearing $600 million again, which was my original projection until an arm injury forced him off the mound in 2024.
I’ll stick with $500 million. But I believe that is the starting point.
Ohtani is not only the best player in years, if not ever, but also a one-of-a-kind marketing opportunity.
Some estimate that teams can earn an extra $35 million with Ohtani, possibly more if he sparks a playoff run, though management sources say the value is closer to $20 million.
There’s no denying he adds excitement, even while we wait for him to return to the mound.
Because this is the free agent to end all free agents, I’ve updated my odds board.
Anyway, I’ve got a new favourite – rather, two new favourites to join the original at the top.
T1. Rangers: They’ve had a taste of success, aren’t hesitant to spend money, and made their first cut six years ago. They were reportedly set to go for Ohtani around midseason. Odds: 6-1.
T1. Giants: After failing to sign Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, or Aaron Judge, the Giants are clearly looking for a major star. There is one concern: some wonder if Ohtani will sign up for a venue that is difficult for left-handed hitters. Odds: 6-1.
T1. Los Angeles Dodgers: The perennial favourite has the most money, is the most consistent winner, and freed salary space last winter. The disadvantage is that they are already close to selling out and require a pitcher more than a hitter. Odds: 6-1.
4. Mets: Steve Cohen can clearly afford it. The downside is that the Mets are already in the highest tax bracket, which means they’ll be taxed at 110 percent on most, if not all, of his contract (so a $60 million paycheck becomes $126 million). After last year’s spending splurge, some anticipate the Mets will be “more disciplined” this year. But this is an exception. Odds: 8-1.
5. Boston Red Sox: The New Balance connection has sparked speculation about the Red Sox. He seemed to enjoy playing there, and they can’t be happy with placing third in three of the last four years. Odds: 10-1.
6. Angels: The current club does not appear to be ready to win in 2024, but they do have a solid core of position players. He certainly appreciates their willingness to let him do his thing, and he had three of his greatest seasons ever there. Odds: 15-1.
7. Cubs: They could be just one big hitting away. He seemed to be a little rich for their tastes, but absolutely possible. Odds: 20-1.
8. New York Yankees: They need to do something big, and what a pairing he’d make with Aaron Judge. He’d want to hit at the Stadium, but he doesn’t like throwing there. Odds: 22-1.
9. The Padres collect big stars. But it’s difficult to see how they can afford him. With free agents Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, and Josh Hader, they will need pitching. Odds: 25-1.
10. Mariners: They tried hard six years ago when he was a steal. He has ties there (a trainer), but their 54 per cent answer may be too expensive for him. Odds: 30-1.
11. Field: Most clubs are exempt from the Cohen tax. So don’t rule out the possibility of a mid-market squad triumphing. Odds: 8-1.