Statistics aid in narrating baseball’s history.
300,000, 500, 20. 73.
All of those famous statistics are associated with the greatest players in the game, and our pursuit of them creates narratives that we can follow throughout the seasons. That holds true for both majors and minors equally. Even while there aren’t nearly as many 20-game winners as there once were, the statistics assist reveal potential future record-setters while we concentrate on tools rather than performance.
• Prospect video; MLB Pipeline; Top 100 prospects;
In light of this, we have selected one prospect-related statistic from each of this year’s 30 farm systems that particularly caught our attention:
East Coast American League
Blue Jays: Spencer Horwitz, 1B (No. 16),.450 OBPSHorwitz, who has a career OBP in the Minors of.407, has been a reliable on-base player during his four seasons in the Jays system. However, in 2023, he reached a new height when he hit.450 for Buffalo, ranking third out of 707 Minor League full-season qualifiers. Horwitz reached that position by batting.337 with several Major League looks throughout 484 plate appearances, walking more times (78) than he struck out (72).
Orioles: 162 wRC+(No. 5/MLB No. 46) Samuel Basallo, C/1BAs everyone is aware, the Orioles have an abundance of hitting prospects. But despite having sluggers like Coby Mayo, big league contributors like Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, and Hitting Prospect of the Year Jackson Holliday, Basallo led the team in 2023 with his 162 wRC+. In addition, he placed second in slugging (.551) and OPS (.953), third in OBP (.402), and second in batting average (.313).
Rays: slugging percentage of.591No. 1/MLB No. 6 junior Caminero, 3B/SSRegardless of the power stat that Caminero produced while playing at High-A and Double-A, it will be impressive. We shall remain with the slugging %, though. Caminero, who was playing in his age-19 season, was the only qualified teenager to slug above.565, with a.591 batting average ranking seventh among Minor League full-season qualifiers. Only Justin Upton’s.556 in 2007 was higher than his.547 SLG at Montgomery, which was the second-best record by a Double-A kid (minimum 300 PA) since 2006.
Yankees: 13.6 K/9Gonzalez Wikelman, RHP (No. 9)Gonzalez finished strong in Double-A and led the Minors in strikeout rate (35 percent) after rebounding from a 15.58 ERA in High-A in August. 2018 saw him sign a $250,000 contract from Venezuela. He displays three good pitches, the best of which is a mid-90s fastball with excellent carry.
Yankees: K of 182Reliever Drew Thorpe (No. 5/MLB No. 99)Thorpe, a 2022 second-round selection out of Cal Poly, led the Minors in strikeouts during his professional debut and was named MLB Pipeline Pitching Prospect of the Year. The strongest things about him are his command and changeup. He also ranked second in wins (14), WHIP (0.98), strikeout rate (34 percent), and strikeout minus walk percentage (26.9).
Drew Thorpe’s 12 strikeouts
Central American League
Defenders: 2.86 FIPLHP Will Dion (No. 27)Fielding Independent Pitching, which is comparable to ERA but only considers the outcomes that pitchers can control the most—strikes out, walks, hits, and home runs—saw Dion lead the Minors in this category. Unheralded coming out of McNeese State in the ninth round of the 2021 draft, he excels at command and deception and finished second in the Minors in ERA (2.39).
Royals: 3.3 rate of swinging strikesVaz Javier, 2B/OF (Page 13)Finding a guy that thrives on making contact is becoming more and more unusual in this era of rising strikeout rates, so the 2022 15th-rounder’s breakout performance is even more of a breath of fresh air. This season, Vaz saw pitches between High-A and Double-A only 3.3% of the time, which resulted in a swinging strike rate that was third among all full-season qualifiers. That, along with his exceptional speed, allowed the Vanderbilt product to hit.279 with an OBP of.373 across 119 games with just 50 strikeouts.
Tigers: average of.343Bigbie, Justice Of The (Page 21)One of the highlights of the Tigers system in 2023 was Bigbie’s breakthrough, as he attempted to move ahead of the ball more after being more opposite-field-dependent in his previous career. His home run total increased from three in 2022 to 19 this season as a result of this, and the hits came. Playing at three different levels, the 2021 19th-round pick was most effective at Double-A Erie, where he hit.362 over 63 games with a 170 wRC+ and a meager 12.5 percent strikeout rate.
Twins: 35 home runsYunior Severino (No. 28) 2B/3BSeverino equaled Shay Whitcomb of the Astros for the most home runs in the 2023 season, with 35. No one else in the Minor Leagues hit more home runs than Severino. He also had the best SLG and ISO (.546 and.274) in the Twins organization.
White Sox: OPS of.939Colson Montgomery, SS (MLB No. 1/Colson Montgomery)Despite missing half the season due to back and oblique issues, Montgomery demonstrated why, when fit, he’s one of baseball’s greatest prospects and is frequently compared to Corey Seager. In 64 games throughout Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, the 2021 first-round pick from an Indiana high school batted.287/.455/.484 with eight home runs.
Colson Montgomery’s three hits
Western American League
Angels: OB =.505No. 1/MLB No. 98, PNolan Schanuel, 1BAlthough Schanuel only played in 22 Minor League games and 97 plate appearances, it is still amazing that he drew 21 walks and struck out just 10 times during that time, especially considering that it was his first season as a professional after being selected in the first round in July. It might not have come as a surprise given that his career OBP in college was.516. It’s a major factor in the Angels’ probably comfortable decision to promote him to the major leagues, where he more than held his own.
Rangers: 35 home runsINF Shay Whitcomb (No. 25).Whitcomb, the final player chosen in the abbreviated five-round 2020 Draft, was tied for the Minor League record most home runs. In 350 games over three professional seasons, the NCAA Division II UC San Diego graduate has 77 home runs and 70 steals.
A’s: 12.5, or 9.RHP Mason Miller (No. 2)Miller has struggled with injuries, including as an elbow sprain that kept him out of the game for four months this year, but his ability to miss bats with elite stuff is undeniable. In his brief tenure in the Minors and big leagues, he only pitched 52 2/3 innings combined, yet during that time, he struck out 73 batters, enough for a 12.5 combined K/9 rate. In the Minor Leagues, he struck out 16.3 times out of nine, and in 10 Major League games, 10.3/9.
Mason Miller K’s three
Mariners: Colt Emerson, SS, 1.045 OPS (Page 4)Good or terrible, we always caution against placing too much value on a fresh draftee’s professional debut. However, it doesn’t hurt to get started right away. After making swift progress to full-season ball, Emerson—the Mariners’ first-round selection in 2023—finished with a.374/.496/.550 line in 24 games. Out of all the high school players in the class with more than a few plate appearances, his 1.045 OPS was the best.
Rangers: 1B (No. 14) SLGAbimelec Ortiz,.619After signing as a nondrafted free agency out of Florida SouthWestern State JC in 2021, Ortiz struggled in his first full season in the pros before blowing out in his second. After leading the High-A Circuit with 26 home runs in just 80 games, he received South Atlantic League MVP honors. He also led the Minors in slugging and placed fourth in home runs (33) and OPS (.990).
East Coast League
Bristles:.169 BAAAJ The RHP Smith-Shawver (No. 1/MLB No. 53)Smith-Shawver, who was 20 years old at the start of the season and had 77 professional innings under his belt, had an incredible year. From High-A to the major leagues, he made it onto every postseason roster. With a strikeout percentage of 11.5 per nine, the minuscule.169 BAA (5.4 H/9) was achieved across 62 Minor League innings. On a major league mound, he wasn’t any easier to hit (.183 BAA).
Smith-Shawver’s three no-hit IP
Marlins: 116 run-outs1B Troy Johnston (number 22)Johnston topped the Double-A Southern League in slugging (.567) and OPS (.963), led the Minors in RBIs, and was fourth in the league in extra-base hits (67) and total bases (281). He was a 2019 Gonzaga 17th-round selection who became the only 20-20 first baseman in the Minors by hitting 26 home runs and stealing 24 bases over the course of two levels.
Mets: 104 trips inWilliams, Jett, SS/OF (MLB No. 78, No. 3/)The 14th overall choice in 2022 appeared to be a future above-average hitter going into his first full season, but in 2023, he was able to move up to Single-A, High-A, and Double-A because to his perseverance and refusal to widen the zone. Williams’ 19.5 percent walk rate placed him 10th among full-season qualifiers, and his 104 free passes were the second-highest in the Minors, only surpassed by Justyn-Henry Malloy’s 110. His OBP was.425 and he was the only full-season qualifier from the Mets with an OBP over.400.
26 home runs by NationalsMLB No. 2/MLB No. 7 James Wood, OFWith his 6-foot-6 stature and all-around raw power, Wood was bound to improve on his 12 home runs in 2022. In fact, he more than doubled that with 26, which puts him atop the system-wide dinger department standings. With 18 of those coming with Double-A Harrisburg, he is one of four players under the age of 20 who had at least 16 home runs in the second-highest level of the Minor League Baseball. The other young sluggers on that list were Deyvison De Los Santos, Jackson Chourio, and Owen Caissie.
Phillies: FIPO = 2.33No. 7 rion Kerkering, RHPA fifth-round selection in 2022, Kerkering amassed video game stats during his ascent from Single-A to the Phillies’ postseason squad in 2023. Along with Jackson Jobe, he had the highest 2.33 xFIP among pitchers who pitched 50 or more innings in the Minor League rankings. Along with recording 14 saves, he also had a.186 BAA, 0.89 WHIP, 1.51 ERA, and 13.2 strikeouts per nine while walking only 2.0. It makes sense that we selected him for our Prospect Team of the Year as the first-team reliever.
Central National League
Brewers: 44 steals, 22 home runsNo. 1/MLB No. 2 Jackson Chourio, OFOnly four teens have completed a 20–40 season in the Minors going into this season since 1958: José Cardenal (1961), Ronald Acuña Jr. (2017), Álex Escobar (1998), Andruw Jones (1995), and Andruw Jones (2017). As one might expect, Chourio is now home to a fifth. With a power-speed-heavy age-19 campaign, primarily in Double-A Biloxi and a quick stop at Triple-A Nashville at the conclusion, Milwaukee’s top prospect built on his breakout 2022 season. Chourio has positioned himself for what may be his Major League debut in the summer of 2020, when he will only be twenty years old.
Cards: 94 bases were pilfered.OF Victor Scott II (Page 4)Entering his first full season as a 2022 fifth-round pick, Scott was a renowned 80-grade runner, but this year he was almost unparalleled in his propensity to press the issue on the basepaths. With 94 thefts, the former West Virginia Mountaineer equaled Rays prospect Chandler Simpson, a fellow native of the Atlanta area and former Northwoods League colleague, for the Minor League lead. Scott has continued to run in the Arizona Fall League; as of Thursday, he leads that circuit with nine thefts.
Victor Scott’ II 90th steal
Cubs: HR/flyball at 25%Owen Caissie, OF (MLB No. 64, No. 3/Caissie, who was acquired by the Padres in exchange for Yu Darvish in 2020, has the potential to be the top power prospect in the Minor Leagues, exhibiting remarkable speed and ability for a 20-year-old. Sixth in age among Double-A Southern League regulars, he led the circuit in flyball to home run ratio and finished in the top five in twelve important offensive categories, including third in slugging (.519), on-base percentage (.398), and OPS (.917), fourth in home runs (22) and fifth in batting (.289).
21.9 BB% of piratesTermarr Johnson, second base (MLB No. 2/No. 22)Johnson’s first full year of professional play was somewhat erratic. However, we cannot doubt his plate discipline. Johnson was one of eight players to end the season with 100 or more walks for a.422 OBP, and he led all Minor Leaguers in walk %. That enabled him to reach his peak, as he finished with a strong 141 wRC+ and 18 home runs.
Reds: Andrew Abbott, LHP (34.6 K-BB%) (Graduated from Reds Top 30)Abbott needs to be recognized for how dominant he was in the Minor Leagues prior to his callup, even though he is well on his way to being one of the better young left-handed starters in the major leagues. Abbott had the highest K-BB% of any player in the Minor Leagues (min. 50 IP). The southpaw limited opponents to a.173 average by striking out 15 batters in nine innings while walking just 2.8.
Western National League
D-backs: 30 home runsNo. 8: Ivan Melendez, 3B/1BIn 2023, fifteen Minor Leaguers would hit 30 home runs or more. Only two players—Cardinals slugger Luken Baker (33 home runs, 84 games) and Melendez (30 home runs, 96 games)—reached the milestone in 100 games or less. After being promoted to hitter-friendly Double-A Amarillo and racking up 12 additional long balls in just 38 games, the 2022 Golden Spikes Award winner broke the club record at High-A Hillsboro with 18 long balls in just 58 games. That’s typical for the former Texas Longhorn, who in his final spring on school hit 32 dingers, setting a Division I BBCOR record.
Ivan Melendez cranks 30th homer
Dodgers: OPS of 1.049Michael Busch, No. 2/MLB No. 44, 3B/2BBusch ranked in the top six in four key offensive statistics last year, including leading the Minors with 118 runs, and he finished second in slugging (.618), OPS, and on-base percentage (.431) this year. North Carolina’s 2019 first-round pick, who finished second in batting (.323) and topped the Triple-A circuit in slugging and OPS, was named the MVP of the Pacific Coast League.
Giants: GO/AO Manuel at 2.3 RHP, Mercedes (not listed in the Giants Top 30)Against Mercedes, who topped the Minors in both the groundout/airout ratio and home run rate (0.2 per nine innings), it is nearly impossible to lift the ball. He is a Dominican Republic native who was signed for $400,000 and has a fastball that reaches 93–95 mph with a power sink.
Padres: ERA of 1.82As LHP (No. 3/MLB No. 60), Robby SnellingThroughout his age-19 season, San Diego continued to push for the 2022 39th overall choice, as he continued to perform at Single-A, High-A, and even Double-A levels. The lowest ERA of any of the 272 Minor League pitchers who threw at least 100 frames in 2023 was Snelling’s 1.82 over 103 2/3 innings. The 19-year-old’s best ERA was 1.56 at Double-A San Antonio, albeit in a small 17 1/3-frame sample; he didn’t have an ERA over 2.34 at any of his three appearances.
34 home runs for the RockiesNo. 12: Hunter Goodman, 1B/CWe wanted to test if Goodman’s power would hold up as he progressed up the Minor League ladder after he hit 36 home runs in 2022, primarily in the lower levels. He made his major league debut in 2023 by finishing one off the Minor League lead, therefore the answer was definitely yes. Over his last two Minor League seasons, he has also driven in 217 runs.