It’s time for an annual preseason tradition: our five most intriguing players for the upcoming NBA season. We (mostly) avoid superstars, rookies and second-year players; everyone is intrigued by them! The goal is to find X factors whose development could swing how their teams perform today, and how those organizations approach key team-building decisions.
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
Two years ago, the debate over the league’s best young point guards (below Luka Doncic) focused on Ball, Trae Young and Ja Morant. After a lost season due to injuries, several youngish point guards have vaulted ahead of Ball in the discourse: Tyrese Haliburton, De’Aaron Fox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Garland, Jalen Brunson.
“I don’t care about that stuff,” Ball tells ESPN. “I just want to lock in for the team. We are trying to make the playoffs.”
That may sound ridiculous for a woebegone franchise that has cracked .500 once since 2016 and hasn’t won a playoff series in 21 years, but the Hornets — with a similar roster — won 43 games two seasons ago. Ball was an All-Star.
Ball is a good bet to jump back up in that point guard conversation. Big ball handlers who can shoot are the NBA’s apex player type. You just don’t find many humans who are 6-foot-7 with genius vision and dangerous 3-point shots.
To get there — and for the Hornets to sniff .500 again — Ball has to tighten up a casual looseness in his game. It’s most noticeable on defense, where Ball is an audacious gambler — lunging wayward for steals. Steve Clifford, Charlotte’s coach, has favored conservatism — slow on offense, low-risk on defense.
Player and coach insist they are adaptable. “Your job is to understand your team and play in a way that gives you the best chance,” Clifford tells ESPN. Charlotte played at the league’s ninth-fastest pace last season. “This team was put together to run,” Clifford says. Ball is a voracious grab-and-go rebounder.
Ball found a better balance on defense, Clifford says. “Stealing the ball is a good thing. But there are guys that want to steal the ball all the time, and it absolutely destroys your defense. [Ball] is not like that. He wants to defend.”
Ball is 22; stouter defense comes with experience. The looseness on offense was more confounding. For a passing savant, Ball became a little shot happy; he was the only rotation player leaguewide to jack more than 20 shots per 36 minutes while earning fewer than four free throws.
His pull-up and step-back 3s are weapons, and Ball has unteachable guile in opening space for those shots — faking toward picks and then rejecting them, tipping defenders off-balance with liquidy hesitation dribbles and snappy crossovers. But too many high-wire 3s early in the shot clock can be demoralizing for teammates.
The low free throws reflect Ball’s reluctant, scattershot paint game. His attempts from the restricted area have decreased every season. He is one of the worst guard finishers in the league — 54% at the rim, a stunning number given his size.
Ball approaches the basket in a rush, sometimes overeager to get rid of the ball before even touching the paint. That is the paradox of Ball: Dishing it early can be healthy, but there is such a thing — even for point guards — of dishing it too early, too often. Ball chases shots when it might be best to keep the ball moving, and moves the ball when it might be best to keep searching.
Against dropback schemes, Ball short-circuits pick-and-rolls — picking his dribble up 20 feet from the rim with runway ahead, lofting ultra-long floaters or kicking to shooters who aren’t open because Ball hasn’t sucked in the defense. (Against traps, Ball’s willingness to make the first available pass is essential; he catapults his screeners into 4-on-3s. Ball and Gordon Hayward worked an effective two-man game in this style. The Ball-Terry Rozier pick-and-roll is an occasional wrinkle.)
You seldom see Ball slow down, pin defenders on his hip and wait for the defense to make a mistake. The Steve Nash under-the-rim dribble is not in his regular arsenal.
“Everyone talks about hitting the paint, but for most players, it’s getting deep into the paint that puts maximum heat on defenses,” Clifford says. “It really limits those floaters and hook shots that are hard for any player.”
Miles Bridges — a favorite Ball screener — will be back after serving a suspension linked to his no-contest plea to a felony domestic violence charge. Mark Williams is a hyper-athletic lob-catcher with savvy pitter-pat footwork.
Ball has spent the offseason developing his prodding game, watching film with Clifford and Marlon Garnett, a key Hornets assistant, and running reps with staffers dotting the floor as targets — in the corners, under the rim, rolling for pocket passes.
“If Coach wants me to keep [the ball] longer, I’ll do it,” Ball says. He has shown glimpses of it — especially two seasons ago, when the Hornets were healthier:
The coaches are also pushing Ball to be more judicious attacking bigs on switches — to try to get by them more instead of settling for step-back bombs.
Ball prefers freedom bordering on chaos. The NBA game at its highest level — a level Ball has not really felt yet — is not so accommodating. It can get slow, ugly, brutish. To win big, you have to win every style. A more diverse pick-and-roll game would steel Ball and the Hornets for those moments.
Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder
Giddey is one of the most unusual players in the league, and will become among the most important as the rising Thunder reach payroll levels that could almost force them into trading a core player.
Giddey is a giant, 6-foot-8 point forward with ingenious passing instincts — if you cut, he will find you — and a 3-point shot wobbly enough that defenses slough away from him both on and off the ball. There is almost no satisfying player comparison for him.
He is not overpowering or blow-away fast in the vein of other non-shooting, position-less point-whatevers; he can’t eat up space and rampage through defenses like young Ben Simmons or Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giddey gets to the rim a lot, but he’s a so-so finisher and earns few free throws — only 1.9 per game last season.
It is hard to imagine Giddey growing into the No. 1 ball handler on a great team unless he improves his jumper. It is also hard for a perimeter non-shooter — or someone defenses regard as a non-shooter — to work as an effective No. 2 at the highest levels. As of now, the developed versions of Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren project as cleaner fits in a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander-centric offense. But how would other teams — potential trade partners — view Giddey in three, four, or five years if he tops out as something short of a No. 1 option without the jumper to be a classic No. 2 or No. 3?
(Don’t assume the next big Thunder trade is some consolidation move in which they package players and picks for a star. They could go that route, of course. But they could also deal an established young player for more first-round picks to keep the small-market machine sustainable.)
Those choices are years away; Giddey turns 21 on Tuesday. The Thunder love what they’ve seen so far, and Giddey won’t even be extension-eligible until after this season.
He’s also very good, already having mastered dozens of tiny tricks designed to pry open driving lanes that shouldn’t be there with defenses sagging so far from him. (We associate the quarterback keeper fake handoff with big men, but Giddey pulls it mid-dribble — and saunters to the rim when defenders take the bait.)
The Thunder under coach Mark Daigneault have sprinkled in more, including a whir of guard-guard screening combinations — some with Giddey handling, others with him as screener — that confuse defenses for a half-second.
That half-second — and the alleyways that open within it — are all Giddey needs. He knows defenses will duck screens for him, so he has Thunder big men set them lower on the floor — and often two and three times in succession, until his defender gets hung up or lurches the wrong way.
Giddey then wins the race to the area beneath the screen, draws help defenders that precious extra step toward him, and flicks whatever pass the defense exposes.
He can plow through backpedaling defenders and smaller guards for floaters. The height and power are essential; with defenders laying back, Giddey blew by the defense on only 14.8% of his drives — 12th-lowest among 277 players who recorded at least 100 drives, per Second Spectrum.
It helps that opponents often assign smaller guards to defend Giddey, so that wings can take Gilgeous-Alexander. It will be interesting to see if Giddey ever becomes a semi-regular post player. He could punish mismatches there, and his passing would translate to back-to-the-basket situations. Giddey recorded only 21 post touches last season, per Second Spectrum.
Giddey has a knack for tipping in his own misses. He’s an elite defensive rebounder for his position, and that makes him a fast break waiting to happen — either by roaring up the floor himself, or flinging hit-aheads. Ignore him in the half court and he might beat you with a backdoor cut; good passers are often heady cutters.
Last season, he averaged 16.6 points, 8 rebounds and six dimes on a good team. You don’t turn up your nose at numbers like that just because Giddey struggles from deep. (He led Australia in scoring at the FIBA World Cup — 19.4 points — though he hit just 2-for-12 on 3s in five games.)
Giddey attempts about 3.5 3s per game, so he’s not allergic to them. He hit 32.5% last season. Giddey could easily grow into at least an average spot-up shooter. That player is a potential All-Star.
As is, the bits of cunning Giddey leans on to compensate for his shooting may not work as well against playoff defenses. He may face more switches in those settings on guard-big pick-and-rolls; opposing bigs are comfortable conceding jumpers to Giddey on switches, and defenses aren’t worried (yet) about Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, or any other Thunder big bullying guards. (The Giddey-Gilgeous-Alexander two-man game is a different animal.)
Giddey’s defense has been disappointing outside of his rebounding. He plays somewhat upright, and his short wingspan — almost the same as his height — limits his impact as a help defender. He’s big enough that it’s easy for the Thunder to hide him on weaker links, but Giddey too often feels like a floating non-presence on defense. He’ll get better there, too.
Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs
It’s already easy to picture Vassell fitting into a Victor Wembanyama-centered team as an elite 3-and-D player. The intrigue lies in how good Vassell can get at the core skills of that role, and whether he can stretch the boundaries of it — becoming the 3-and-D type who can work as a secondary ball handler in playoff-level games.
In inking Vassell to a five-year, $146 million extension, the Spurs made an emphatic bet on Vassell becoming that sort of well-rounded two-way wing. “San Antonio is home,” Vassell told ESPN about a week before signing the deal. “I love it here. Getting feedback from Pop [Spurs coach Gregg Popovich] is huge. It’s a great culture.”
Vassell was watching the NBA draft lottery at his house. “There was such an excitement,” he said. “Victor is gonna help us out right away. We have more national [TV games], which means more chances to put everyone on notice.”
Vassell drew little national attention even as he bumped his scoring average by six full points — to 18.5 per game. His catch-and-shoot 3 is proven; Vassell hit 40% on such shots over the past two seasons combined — including a sizzling 43% last season. (He appeared in only 38 games before undergoing knee surgery midseason; Vassell said his knee was sore during most of those games.)
He tripled his pick-and-roll volume — from about 7 per 100 possessions to nearly 23, per Second Spectrum — and managed well on a rebuilding team. He defaults to his pet midrange shot, though that’s not a major problem; Vassell hit a tidy 47% on long 2s, and that’s an important tool for him and Spurs late in the shot clock. (He has a high release that is tough to disrupt, and can move the ball to either side of his head in mid-air to find a clear line to the rim.)
Still, some early-clock mid-rangers come at the expense of more profitable stuff — rim attacks, pocket passes, pull-up 3s when Vassell’s man gets caught on picks.
Vassell attempted only 20 pull-up 3s all season. He didn’t get to the rim or the line much. He vowed to do more of all of that this season. “I’m going to go up and test some big men,” Vassell said. “I’m trying to catch more bodies.”
He showed flashes of a more nuanced paint game — changing pace, keeping his dribble alive, fooling defenders with eye fakes and shoulder shakes:
He thrived sling-shotting into sideline handoffs — after an initial action had bent the defense:
It’s easy to say Vassell won’t get to control the offense so often on a winning team. Maybe so. But the best teams have lots of secondary handlers capable of keeping the offense moving on plays exactly like that handoff. Improving on those also bodes well for Vassell’s catch-and-go driving game — the bread-and-butter of any 3-and-D wing. Tre Jones — San Antonio’s starting point guard — has made huge strides, but he’s still more of a game manager; the Spurs need dynamic ball handling.
“I have a big opportunity,” Vassell said. “There’s definitely more to my game than just 3-and-D.”
Vassell averaged 3.6 dimes last season, easily a career high, but he has to level up as a playmaker. He often carves deep into the paint with eyes on the rim, only to change course at the last second and heave lollipop bailouts — soft, high passes the defense can track in flight. He leaves pocket passes on the table.
In fairness, the Spurs’ spacing last season was cramped. Passing lanes were tight, and closed fast. Vassell did not have a rolling threat anything like what Wembanyama could be. “Having a screener like that — it’s gonna change everything,” Vassell said.
The “D” part of the Vassell 3-and-D equation has lagged behind expectations — typical of young players with ambitions of scoring. Vassell is slithery, with a 6-10 wingspan, and has the look of someone who can switch from point guards to power forwards. In some matchups, he can. But bigger wings have bullied him some. Vassell’s attention to detail can wane. He’s a so-so rebounder.
But the tools are there. Vassell has also put on weight — he said he’s up to 205 pounds — with an eye on becoming a more versatile defender.
He should get there. If the right parts of his game pop, Vassell could be a core starter on the next great San Antonio team.
Deandre Ayton, Portland Trail Blazers
What an opportunity for vengeance for Ayton, who just watched the win-now Phoenix Suns flip him for a player (Jusuf Nurkic) who is older, less talented and not as consistently healthy. Sure, Phoenix got two bench-level rotation guys along with Nurkic, but the deal at its core was a rousing vote of no-confidence in Ayton.
Monty Williams’ benching of Ayton in the Suns’ humiliating Game 7 loss to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2022 conference semifinals was the beginning of the end for Ayton in Phoenix. Too many figures within the team lost confidence in Ayton.
Ayton missing Game 6 against the Denver Nuggets last season surprised several people within the team, though Ayton was dealing with a painful rib injury, sources said. By then, teammates had long stopped hiding their frustration when Ayton spun away from contact and settled for wonky hook shots.
Ayton entered the league as a jack-of-all-trades, master of none type on offense — in a good way. He could do a little of everything; which skill set would Ayton and the Suns lean into most? The mystery was exciting.
The acquisition of Chris Paul ended up answering the question: Ayton would become a rumbling screen-setter, subsuming any ambition of hoisting jumpers at high volume, posting up over and over, or acting as a passing hub from the elbows. For a while, it worked. Ayton bought in. The Suns made the 2021 Finals. The most important Suns — Paul, Williams, Devin Booker — talked Ayton up every time they got the chance.
But there was always tension burbling beneath the surface: Ayton wanted to do more. (Sometimes he did — as in the Suns’ first-round win over the New Orleans Pelicans in 2022, when Booker missed Games 3, 4 and 5 due to injury.)
What will the Blazers ask him to do on a team built around Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe? Will any of those semi-dormant skills sing again?
Ayton is a very good midrange shooter; he hit 48% on long 2s last season, and has nailed better than 50% for his career from floater range. But his aversion to contact and low free throw attempts — 2.6 per game — have always nibbled away at the math of his shot diet. His efficiency on post-ups is average, per Second Spectrum.
Ayton is a good passer, but he prefers facilitating from a standstill; the Suns wagered Nurkic’s superior passing on the move in the pick-and-roll is a better fit for their team, and for winning basketball.
Ayton will put up numbers for the rebuilding Blazers, but the nature of those numbers — how impactful they feel — will be telling. There is still a really good offensive player in here.
The world — including this writer — got too low on Ayton’s defense after the Jamal Murray-Nikola Jokic two-man game tore Phoenix apart last postseason. Ayton seemed to regress, losing his grip on timing and spatial awareness — even conceding Murray driving lanes by abandoning help assignments too early:
Eyes rolled.
But Ayton was better on rewatch. You remember the dunks, but not the plays on which Ayton nailed the dance steps against the league’s deadliest two-man game:
A ton of Denver baskets were about the brilliance of Murray and Jokic, not some fatal error by Ayton. Several Phoenix guards were miserable getting around screens, falling far behind and leaving Ayton at a massive disadvantage. His defense wasn’t up to 2021 standards, but it was mostly decent.
Ayton remains the rare center big enough to jostle against behemoths in the post, nimble enough to contain pick-and-rolls around the 3-point arc (including on switches), and so fast as to be a problem running the floor.
He still has to find the right balance in his game — the one or two things he can rely on most, plus more ferocity around the basket. He’s barely 25. If this is who he is, it will be a slight disappointment. Stagnate and Ayton could lose his starting spot to Robert Williams III.
Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks
Quickley feels too chiseled in stone for this column: the classic smallish combo guard who can start in a pinch but will likely work as the sixth man for the bulk of his career — at least on good teams.
That’s probably what he is, but there are wide degrees of that player type, and how much more Quickley has in him could be a huge swing factor for the Knicks. Quickley is eligible for an extension now. Like it or not, the final number matters. If and when the Knicks trade for a star — and they have been gearing up for years to do it — Quickley could be a key sweetener alongside New York’s bushel of future picks.
Quickley is a cagey, unpredictable player with creative bob-and-weave staccato to his movements on and off the ball — a welcome jolt of slipperiness for a sometimes staid, isolation-heavy New York offense. Playing alongside Jalen Brunson, Quickley has gotten better flying off screens, catching on the move and then wrong-footing defenders with stop-and-start fakes:
He proved a willing screener for Brunson last season in unconventional guard-guard pick-and-rolls — a nasty method of forcing switches, and gifting Brunson favorable matchups.
He has seized the offense when Brunson rests and honed more pick-and-roll reads — even manipulating defenses with pass fakes and changes of pace:
At times, he is a very willing passer.
New York has generally been much better with Quickley on the floor, though in his first two seasons that was more of an indictment of the Knicks’ punchless starting five. The Brunson-Quickley-Josh Hart trio blew away opponents last season once the Knicks acquired Hart.
Quickley has shot well from deep and on midrangers and generates more free throws than you’d expect for someone who rarely gets to the rim. He thinks score-first, and sometimes misses available passes in traffic:
Quickley recorded assists on only 12% of his pick-and-rolls, 177th among 226 players who ran at least 100 such plays, per Second Spectrum.
The playoffs have overwhelmed him. Quickley has shot just 33% across 13 playoff games. His floater was on last season, but his 3-pointer deserted him; Quickley hit just 1-for-11 on pull-up triples and 9-for-37 overall. It was probably random noise, but the postseason trends have to shift soon — for both Quickley and Julius Randle.
Quickley is a rangy, active defender, but both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat hunted him some in the postseason — reinvigorating questions about whether the Knicks or any other team can win deep into the playoffs pairing two small guards for heavy minutes.
Talent answers a lot of those questions, and Quickley has been on a steady upward trajectory — on both ends. He has more layers to add.