Over the weekend, the regular season came to a conclusion. We are one game into the playoffs’ first round. Additionally, the offseason lasts a long time, with little in the way of player acquisition happening until the December winter meetings. But before entering the world of free agency and trade, teams have a lot of choices to make with their own players. Many players are assigned or non-tendered prior to November 17th, even though that is the non-tender day. Teams need to reduce their 40-man roster to 40 players after the World Series. The 60-day injury list disappears at the end of the season, although players on it are not included in the 40-man count during play.
If we include players on the 60-day injured list, the Cincinnati Reds currently have 46 players on their 40-man roster. In a few weeks, it will be necessary to account for Graham Ashcraft, Justin Dunn, Vladimir Gutierrez, Nick Lodolo, Connor Overton, and Reiver Sanmartin. Luke Maile, Buck Farmer, and Harrison Bader are all expected to be unrestricted free agents. Curt Casali and Joey Votto’s 2024 future is contingent upon team choices.
That is a lot of chatter about players who are not eligible for arbitration. I typed all of that out, though, because it might come up soon with players who are eligible for arbitration; some of them might very well be non-tendered or designated for assignment by the club instead of being retained and/or receiving a raise now that they have advanced to a certain level of arbitration.
1st Year Arbitration Eligible Players
For the first time, four players will be eligible for arbitration. Here, there’s just one pitcher: Vladimir Gutierrez. Jake Fraley, Jonathan India, and Tyler Stephenson join him.
Every one of the three position players is a starter. In 2022, Gutierrez started two games as a reliever and was also a starting pitcher. However, he ended up landing on the injured list and had Tommy John surgery.
2nd Year Arbitration Eligible Players
Additionally, four Reds players from 2023 will be eligible for arbitration for the second time. Here, there are four pitchers. For 2024, right-handed pitchers Tejay Antone, Justin Dunn, and Derek Law as well as left-handed reliever Alex Young will all be seeking raises.
Both Derek Law and Alex Young pitched for the Reds during the season, appearing in 63 and 54 games, respectively. After missing the entire year of 2022 due to his second Tommy John surgery, Tejay Antone was sidelined for a significant portion of the year. Before spending the final three weeks of his comeback on the disabled list, he pitched in five games back in September. The majority of the last three seasons—including all of 2023—have been missed by Justin Dunn. And in September, he had surgery, having spent the whole time battling a shoulder issue.
3rd Year Arbitration Eligible Players
There are only two players who will be arbitration eligible for a third time from the 2023 club. Nick Senzel will be joined by Lucas Sims.
The Salaries
The MLB Trade Rumors team appears to be rather accurate in predicting the amount of money that players will receive in arbitration. We are unaware of everyone’s estimated salary because they have not yet disclosed their forecasts, which are typically announced in mid-October. However, we do know two things: first, how much they made this year; second, although most arbitration decisions result in raises, players may get compensation reductions of up to 20% below their prior year’s pay. Players in their rookie year are plainly exempt from this since they made the league minimum and are entitled to compensation over that amount.
Here is what each of the players that are arbitration eligible made last season:
They will all receive raises if the Reds choose to keep all of these players on the team and offer them contracts through 2024. Because arbitration is structured in such a way, the payroll impact is probably going to be negligible. The third year of arbitration is when the biggest raises occur (or in rare circumstances where a player is eligible for a 4th year). Players of superstar status will see increases in their first year or two, but they won’t be substantial ones. Senzel, a utility player, and Sims, a non-closing reliever, are the two Cincinnati third-year eligible players. None of the players listed above fit into that group.